NIAS research on the Arctic

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CWA # 468, 9 May 2021
NIAS research on the Arctic
​​​​​​​As Russia takes over the Arctic Council chair from Iceland, will it balance its regional and national interests?

  ​​​​​​​Rashmi BR

While the Arctic Council is in a transition, it is of utmost importance to ensure that the chairmanship ends with a strong final declaration. In a first, the Finnish chairmanship (2017-19) ended abruptly without a declaration, mainly seen as a failure of the chair to gather the support of all the eight countries

The Arctic Council chairmanship, which rotates every two years, will see Russia as its new chair from May 2021. The focus of Iceland and Russia for the chairmanship may turn out to be similar on many aspects. However, the latter's national interest in the Arctic will be juxtaposed with its chairmanship priorities. As Russia prepares to take over, this commentary makes an attempt to look into the current Icelandic chairmanship and what could be expected from the forthcoming Russian stint.

Iceland and the Arctic Council: A Review

Iceland has led the Arctic Council twice since its establishment in 1996. In its first chairmanship between 2002-04, it listed three key priorities. First, human development in the Arctic, where the focus was on the living conditions of the people, including the indigenous communities, though Iceland is the only Arctic country devoid of indigenous people. Second, the use of information and telecommunication to enhance welfare in the remote areas in the North. Third, strengthening cooperation on Arctic research. 

For its chairmanship between 2019-21, Iceland worded the theme as "Together towards a Sustainable Arctic". The Arctic Council began on the premise of sustainable development and environmental protection. In a rapidly changing Arctic, it is of utmost importance to look back at the basic mandate and keep that as the starting point for new activities. 

The four priorities of the chairmanship were climate and green energy solution, Arctic marine environment, people and communities of the Arctic, and contributing for a stronger Arctic Council. Human development and strengthening cooperation in the Arctic are the two aspects that Iceland carried from its previous role as the chair. 

Fishing is one of the primary pillars of the Icelandic economy, with a contribution from the seafood industry amounting to 11 per cent of the GDP directly and 25 per cent indirectly. Blue economy and the use of innovation and biotechnology in the fisheries sector was actively promoted by the chairmanship. In the words of Ambassador Einar Gunnarsson, Chair of the Senior Arctic Officials, blue bioeconomy refers to "innovation potentials in utilizing and creating new marine products with the help of new unconventional processing methods." Methods like minimizing wastage of caught species and use them in the production of biomass in case of wastage will be a contribution towards attaining sustainable development. Iceland also set up an expert panel and workshop on the blue bioeconomy at the Arctic Frontiers event in January 2020.

Since the Arctic marine environment is a stated priority, they focused extensively on marine pollution and litter. Activities in this regard began during the Finnish Chairmanship under the auspices of the Working Group' Prevention of Arctic Marine Environment', and a work plan was approved at the Arctic Council Ministerial Meeting at Rovaniemi. As part of one of the landmark projects carried out by the Icelandic chairmanship, 'Plastic in a Bottle', a GPS-enabled capsule was launched from the country's Coast Guard vessel Thor in September 2019. After travelling approximately for 207 days, it reached the land on the Isle of Tiree in Scotland, revealing how plastic travels across the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans. The data from this project has been incorporated in the Regional Action Plan on Marine Litter, co-led by Iceland, Denmark, Canada, Finland, Norway, Sweden, US, Aleut International Association and OSPAR Convention. Iceland also focused on Arctic ocean acidification. Iceland hosted a side event on Arctic Ocean Acidification in the COP25 held in December 2019.

Nordic countries are known to encourage cooperation in the Arctic, and they pin institutions as nodal points in the process. Iceland, similar to its Nordic counterparts, has time and again emphasized peace, cooperation and strengthening of the Arctic Council. Placing the Council as the primary organization in the region, Reykjavik aimed to involve different stakeholders in its deliberations. On 9 October 2019, it organized a landmark meeting between the Arctic Council and the Arctic Economic Council, bringing together representatives of states, industry and indigenous people to discuss on the blue economy, telecommunication, connectivity, economics and investments. The chairmanship also jointly held the First Arctic Leaders' Youth Summit with the Saami Council and the Permanent Participants of the Council. 

The primary challenge before the Icelandic chairmanship was the pandemic that stalled the implementation of several projects and dialogues, including the Arctic Ocean Ministers' Meet and Arctic Plastics Symposium. While the Council is in a transition, it is of utmost importance to ensure that the chairmanship ends with a strong final declaration. In a first, the Finnish chairmanship (2017-19) ended abruptly without a declaration, mainly seen as a failure of the chair to gather the support of all the eight countries. The primary bone of contention was the discussion on the issue of black carbon and the work of the Expert Group on Black Carbon and Methane, to which the Trump administration did not agree to subscribe. The Ottawa Declaration, in the process of decision-making, mandates consensus between all the members of the Council. To ensure the success of its chairmanship, it would therefore be important for Iceland to achieve consensus on crucial issues raised under is leadership. A strong declaration at the culmination of the Icelandic chairmanship, will lay a base for the Russian priorities. 

What to expect from the Russian chairmanship?

On 6 March 2020, Russia released the 'Basic Principles of Russian Federation State Policy in the Arctic to 2035' or 'Basic Principles 2035' that defines Russia's interests and plans in/for the Arctic. Russia is the largest Arctic country, with the longest coastline along the Arctic Ocean, prioritizes its sovereignty in the North and harbours to revive pre-1991 Soviet military-strategic interests in the region. The region is also important for the economic interests of Russia, given that it contributes 10 per cent to the GDP. It is hence not surprising when Moscow calls for developing the Northern Sea Route as a "globally competitive national transport corridor". 

Ambassador Nikolay Korchunov, Russia's Senior Arctic Official, stated that during its term, "Russia will strive for strengthening Arctic cooperation and keeping the Arctic as an area of peace and constructive collaboration…". In this regard, Russia may prioritize climate change and the environment, ensuring cooperation, improving the living standards of the indigenous people, involvement of observer states and economic development. 

While these are well within the regional interests and seem similar to the Icelandic priorities, the larger Arctic geopolitics may have a greater say. Russian national interests in the Arctic are not necessarily antithetical to the regional interests. However, the scepticism that has been generated due to its military advances and exercises, the thaw in the relationship between Western Europe and Russia since Crimean annexation in 2014, the sanctions regime and its assertiveness on the shipping lanes, will play a significant role in determining the functioning of the Russian chairmanship in the coming days. 

About the author

Rashmi BR is a doctoral scholar with the Science Diplomacy Program, School of Conflict and Security Studies.

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